Product Hunt has established itself as the preeminent platform for launching and discovering new technology products. With a highly-engaged community of early adopters, makers, investors and journalists, a featured spot on Product Hunt can provide massive exposure for a fledgling product.
Collectively, Product Hunt has the potential to surface the hits of tomorrow. It‘s like a giant focus group for what‘s coming next in tech. But how many of those bright shiny objects go on to have a real impact?
To find out, I analyzed data on 102,582 products featured on Product Hunt over the past decade and checked which ones are still online today. The results paint a picture of how a splashy Product Hunt launch correlates to long-term startup success.
Methodology
To determine which products are still active, I used Product Hunt‘s API to pull historical data on every product featured on the site going back to December 2013. This includes the product name, description, maker, URL, images, upvote count, and other metadata.
For each product, I programmatically checked its URL to see if it is still accessible. If a URL returns a 2XX successful HTTP status code, or a 3XX redirect, I considered that product still online. If it returns an error code or fails to connect, I marked it as defunct.
I further grouped the errors into three main buckets:
- 4XX client errors (e.g. 404 not found)
- 5XX server errors
- Other failures (DNS resolution, timeouts, SSL issues, etc)
I also tagged each product with its featuredlaunch date to analyze how failure rates correlate with age. Finally, I integrated upvote counts and topic categoriesdata to compare success rates across different product attributes.
22.6% of Product Hunt featured products are now defunct
In total, over 22% of products that were once featured on Product Hunt no longer have a live URL. Specifically, out of the 102,582 products analyzed:
- π΄ 13.4% (13,746) return a 4XX client error
- π΄ 3.7% (3,796) return a 5XX server error
- π΄ 5.5% (5,642) fail for other reasons (DNS, timeouts, etc)
- β 77.4% (79,398) are still online
While it‘s disappointing to see over 23,000 once-promising products bite the dust, an overall success rate of nearly 80% is impressive. It meaningProduct Hunt is surfacing products with real legs.
Failure rates decline significantly over time
One might assume that failure rates would be drasticallylower for more recently featured products, simply because they haven‘t been around as long. And this is indeed the case β but the data shows Product Hunt picks are surprisingly resilient even over 5+ year timeframes.
Here is a breakdown of the percentage of defunct products by launch year:
| Launch Year | % Defunct |
|---|---|
| 2013 | 46.2% |
| 2014 | 40.4% |
| 2015 | 41.6% |
| 2016 | 32.3% |
| 2017 | 30.9% |
| 2018 | 24.4% |
| 2019 | 17.6% |
| 2020 | 12.8% |
| 2021 | 9.4% |
| 2022 | 6.1% |
As you can see, truly ancient products from 2013-2015 in Product Hunt‘s earliest days do have failure rates over 40%. But those rates quickly step down. By 2016-2017 the failure percentage was around 30%, and products from just 4-5 years ago in 2018-2019 are nearly 80% still active.
So while Product Hunt has certainly featured itsshare of vaporware and flash-in-the-pan flops overa decade, the vast majority ofproducts with early traction seem to havegenuine staying power. Getting a successful launch is strongly correlated with building something that can go the distance.
Most upvoted β Most likely to succeed
Failure rates mostly descended over time with one notable exception β the class of 2015 was slightly more likely to fail than 2014. What happened? Two words β Startup Stash.
Startup Stash was a curated directory of resources and tools for startups β things like free stock photos, website templates, analytics tools, etc. It was a sensation when it launched in November 2015, racking up 5,607 upvotes which made it the #1 most upvoted product of the year. Tragically, it is now lost to the sands of time (and expired domain registrations).
This got me wondering if there is actually any correlation between a product‘s popularity on launch day and its ultimate fate. To investigate, I compared the failure rates of products based on their upvote counts:
| Upvote count | % Defunct |
|---|---|
| 0-9 | 23.7% |
| 10-49 | 22.6% |
| 50-99 | 19.8% |
| 100-499 | 25.3% |
| 500-999 | 26.8% |
| 1000+ | 24.8% |
Surprisingly, the failure rate is extremely consistent across all upvote tiers, mostly around 23-25%. The 500-999 tier actually has the highest failure rate. Products that get 50-99 upvotes perform best over time β perhaps the "Goldilocks zone" of being promising but not overhyped.
In general, mega hit viral launches with thousands of upvotes are no more likely to translate into lasting businesses than solid products with 100-200 upvotes. In the long run, substance beats sizzle.
Tale of two products: Meerkat vs Letterboxd
To illustrate how two highly-hyped products can have divergent fates, let‘s compare two major movie-related launches from around the same time: Meerkat and Letterboxd.
Meerkat was a livestreaming video app that made a huge splash when it launched in February 2015, racking up over 1,300 upvotes. It was one of the first apps to make mobile livestreaming simple and social, paving the way for Periscope and Facebook Live. It quickly raised $12M in funding on a $40M valuation and had celebrity users like Ashton Kutcher and Jared Leto. But then Twitter acquired Periscope and cut off Meerkat‘s access to its social graph, crippling its momentum. The founders eventually pivoted to a group video chat app called Houseparty, which itself was acquired and shut down by Epic Games in 2021.
Letterboxd is a social network for film lovers to track and review the movies they watch. While it only got about half as many upvotes as Meerkat when it launched in January 2015, it is still going strong today with over 6 million members in 2024. Why? It didn‘t try to blaze a new trail or hype itself as the hot new thing β it focused on serving the age-old desire of movie buffs to catalog and discuss their favorite films with like-minded enthusiasts. By catering to a passionate niche and building a product they love, Letterboxd has achieved slow-burn sustainable growth without the rocket ship expectations.
Top 5 most upvoted launches: Where are they now?
As a final analysis, let‘s look at the ultimate fates of the top 5 most upvoted Product Hunt launches of all time:
- Startup Stash (2015, 5607 votes) β π Defunct
- Nomad List (2015, 4236 votes) β β Still active
- Product Hunt (2014, 3953 votes) β β Acquired by AngelList, still active
- Tesla Model 3 (2016, 3692 votes) β β Still going strong
- Ship by Product Hunt (2018, 3406 votes) β π Defunct
Three out of the five are still alive, with both Product Hunt and Tesla obviously going on to be massive successes. But two of the top five most hyped launches ever β Startup Stash and Ship β are now gone. Just because a product captures the enthusiasm of the PH community doesn‘t mean it‘s destined for greatness.
The secrets to PH launch success
Based on my research and experience launching products on Product Hunt over the years, here are some key tips for boosting your odds of a successful, sustainable launch:
Nail the fundamentals of your product πͺ β Ultimately, the quality and market fit of your product itself matters far more than a splashy one-day spike. Focus on building something useful that delights users.
Build pre-launch momentum π₯ β The Product Hunt algorithm favors products that come in with early traction and excitement. Build buzz with your network in the days and weeks before the PH launch.
Get hunters in your corner π β The top hunters on PH have huge loyal audiences. Try to get one of them to post your product (with their commentary) instead of posting yourself.
Engage authentically π¬ β Don‘t just dump your link and peace out. The PH community values real discussion. Answer questions, reply to feedback, be a genuine human.
Don‘t beg for upvotes π ββοΈ β It‘s against PH guidelines and can get you penalized or banned. Focus on telling your story and building authentic connections. The upvotes will come organically.
Keep the momentum going π β Don‘t treat your PH launch as a one-and-done. Use it as a springboard into other channels β write content, build an email list, get press coverage. Keep promoting and improving.
Remember, a big splash on PH is just one step in a long journey. It can drive a huge spike in awareness, feedback and early users, but it‘s up to you to convert that into lasting success.
Key Takeaways
After analyzing a decade of Product Hunt data, it‘s clear a featured spot on the front page is no guarantee of longterm success β nearly a quarter of those products ultimately fail. But the data shows promising signs for makers who are able to capitalize on their PH momentum:
Over 75% of featured products are still online and operational, some for 5-10 years. Early traction and buzz can translate to real staying power if executed well.
Failure rates have declined significantly over time as Product Hunt has matured. Newer products are less likely to fail, implying PH has gotten better at curating.
Massive upvote counts don‘t correlate strongly to success. The most hyped products fail at roughly the same 25% rate. Steady sustainable growth beats viral spikes.
The keys to a successful launch are nailing your product fundamentals, engaging authentically with the PH community, and using the spotlight to springboard into sustainable traction.
The real Product Hunt success stories aren‘t the ones-hit wonders that blow up for a day. They‘re the makers who use their launch exposure to build a great product, delight users, and evolve to meet the challenges of a changing market. A Product Hunt badge is nice, but it takes much more than upvotes to build something that stands the test of time.
